(電子商務(wù)研究中心訊) 機(jī)會來源
隨著我國電子商務(wù)購物+重新想象的主題顯示(2月28日)，我們重申我們購買的JD，總商品價值在中國的第二大ecommerceplatform(GMV)。我們相信JD的位置--從快速消費品網(wǎng)上零售增長捕捉下一階段(快速消費品)，其物流強(qiáng)度和omnichannelpartnerships幫助。我們期待在JD的現(xiàn)有類的盈利能力進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大種植規(guī)模，并從2019econtributemeaningful JD超市利潤。我們現(xiàn)在價值JD停止捕捉其金融部門的投資價值。轉(zhuǎn)移覆蓋Ronald Keung。
催化劑
(1)GMV增長穩(wěn)定，40% 4q16(GSE)對strongsingle節(jié)銷售+ 38% / + 39%第一季度/ 2q17e背面(與彭博共識＋35%／36%)增加個性化，快速消費品(FMCG)和1號店直銷業(yè)務(wù)合并(1P)nov2016。JD將于2017年3月2日4q16結(jié)果報告。
(2)潛在的進(jìn)一步合作JD和沃爾瑪之間，從六月的5% 2016到今天的10%followingwalmart JD的股份增加，andwalmart已經(jīng)獨家山姆會員店JD.com，從沃爾瑪的XinDada十字borderstore和兩小時交貨。我們seefurther供應(yīng)鏈、采購、O2O合作潛力。估值。
我們的2016e / 17e / 18e非GAAP epads從rmb-0.58/1.45/5.07 to-0.25/1.00/4.00第四季度的趨勢及我國在快速消費品的scalegains斜坡上升時間的期望。我們是7% 2017e以下共識，但是11%以上的for2018e；介紹2019e epads的rmb9.00。我們切換到停止(我們還usedcf核心零售)更好地捕捉在JD財務(wù)價值，投資。
我們12 TP移動到38美元從31.50美元。我們看到rmb73bn FCF，35美元/上海只為核心在未來5年零售dcfvalue，支撐我們的購買。
關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險
在線GMV下滑、資本配置、邊緣斜坡上升軌跡。
Source of opportunity.
Along with our E + Commerce: Shopping Re-Imagined thematic publishedtoday (Feb 28), we reiterate our Buy on JD, the second-largest ecommerceplatform in China by gross merchandise value (GMV). We believe JD is wellpositioned to capture the next phase of online retail growth—from FastMoving Consumer Goods (FMCG), helped by its logistics strength and omnichannelpartnerships. We expect profitability at JD’s existing categories toexpand further on growing scale, and for JD Supermarket to contributemeaningful profits from 2019E. We now value JD on SOTP to capture thevalue of its finance arm, investments. Transfer coverage to Ronald Keung.
Catalyst.
(1) Stabilization of GMV growth, +40% for 4Q16 (GSe) on the back of strongSingle’s Day sales and +38%/+39% for 1Q/2Q17E (vs. Bloomberg consensus+35%/36%) on increasing personalization, Fast-Moving Consumer Goods(FMCG) and consolidation of Yihaodian direct sales (1P) business from Nov2016. JD will report 4Q16 results on March 2, 2017.
(2) Potential further collaboration between JD and Walmart, followingWalmart’s stake increases in JD from 5% in June 2016 to 10% today, andWalmart’s already exclusive Sam’s Club store on JD.com, cross-borderstore and two-hour delivery from Walmart stores with XinDada. We seefurther supply chain, sourcing, O2O collaboration potential.
Valuation.
Our 2016E/17E/18E non-GAAP EPADS moves from Rmb-0.58/1.45/5.07 to-0.25/1.00/4.00 on 4Q trends and our expectation of ramp-up time for scalegains at FMCG. We are 7% below consensus for 2017E, but 11% above for2018E; introduce 2019E EPADS of Rmb9.00. We switch to SOTP (we still useDCF for core retail) to better capture the value in JD Finance, investments.
Our 12-m TP moves to US$38 from US$31.50. We see FCF of Rmb73bn, DCFvalue of US$35/sh just for core retail in next 5 years, underpinning our Buy.
Key risks.
Online GMV slowdown, capital allocation, margin ramp-up trajectory.（來源：高盛高華證券；文/高盛高華證券研究所）
